{"slug":"betting-market-trends","title":"World Cup Betting Odds & Value Impact","source":"Polymarket Gamma API","championshipFavorite":"ARG","totalBettingVolumeUsd":181495,"polymarketLiquidityUsd":421867.448,"oddsMap":[{"countryCode":"ARG","countryName":"Argentina","polymarketPrice":0.13,"impliedProbability":"13.0%","pricePremiumOffset":"-18.5%"},{"countryCode":"POR","countryName":"Portugal","polymarketPrice":0.255,"impliedProbability":"25.5%","pricePremiumOffset":"-12.3%"},{"countryCode":"COL","countryName":"Colombia","polymarketPrice":0.5,"impliedProbability":"50.0%","pricePremiumOffset":"0.0%"},{"countryCode":"MEX","countryName":"Mexico","polymarketPrice":0.315,"impliedProbability":"31.5%","pricePremiumOffset":"-9.3%"},{"countryCode":"SWE","countryName":"Sweden","polymarketPrice":0.055,"impliedProbability":"5.5%","pricePremiumOffset":"-22.3%"},{"countryCode":"CRO","countryName":"Croatia","polymarketPrice":0.125,"impliedProbability":"12.5%","pricePremiumOffset":"-18.8%"},{"countryCode":"NOR","countryName":"Norway","polymarketPrice":0.315,"impliedProbability":"31.5%","pricePremiumOffset":"-9.3%"},{"countryCode":"ALG","countryName":"Algeria","polymarketPrice":0.055,"impliedProbability":"5.5%","pricePremiumOffset":"-22.3%"},{"countryCode":"UZB","countryName":"Uzbekistan","polymarketPrice":0.0005,"impliedProbability":"0.1%","pricePremiumOffset":"-25.0%"},{"countryCode":"GHA","countryName":"Ghana","polymarketPrice":0.062,"impliedProbability":"6.2%","pricePremiumOffset":"-21.9%"}],"faqs":[{"category":"betting-market-trends","id":"betting-odds-polymarket-integration","question":"How is Polymarket contract data integrated into the price engine?","question_zh":"Polymarket 合约数据是如何集成到价格引擎中的？","question_cn":"Polymarket 合約數據是如何整合到價格引擎中的？","answer":"We query public Polymarket events for World Cup outcomes. The price of a team's contract (e.g. Yes shares trading at $0.80) translates directly to an 80% winning probability, driving card price adjustments.","answer_zh":"我们查询公开的 Polymarket 世界杯结果事件。一支球队合约的价格（例如 Yes 股票以 0.80 美元交易）直接转化为 80% 的获胜概率，进而驱动卡片价格的调整。","answer_cn":"我們查詢公開的 Polymarket 世界盃結果事件。一支球隊合約的價格（例如 Yes 股票以 0.80 美元交易）直接轉化為 80% 的獲勝機率，進而驅動卡片價格的調整。"},{"category":"betting-market-trends","id":"betting-odds-polymarket-vs-kalshi","question":"Why is Polymarket prioritized over Kalshi for World Cup trends?","question_zh":"为什么在世界杯趋势中，Polymarket 比 Kalshi 更受优选？","question_cn":"為什麼在世界盃趨勢中，Polymarket 比 Kalshi 更受優選？","answer":"Polymarket has much higher trading volume and active contracts for international sports (specifically FIFA World Cup matches), whereas Kalshi focuses heavily on US financial and political events.","answer_zh":"Polymarket 在国际体育（特别是 FIFA 世界杯比赛）方面拥有更高的交易量和活跃的合约，而 Kalshi 则重点关注美国金融和政治事件。","answer_cn":"Polymarket 在國際體育（特別是 FIFA 世界盃比賽）方面擁有更高的交易量和活躍的合約，而 Kalshi 則重點關注美國金融和政治事件。"},{"category":"betting-market-trends","id":"betting-probability-to-value-formula","question":"What is the formula converting betting probability to sticker value?","question_zh":"将投注概率转化为贴纸价值的公式是什么？","question_cn":"將投注機率轉化為貼紙價值的公式是什麼？","answer":"We scale the base price using: `Projected Price = Base Price * (1 + (Probability - 0.5) * Volatility Index)`. This aligns collectible values with real-world public expectations.","answer_zh":"我们使用以下公式调整基础价格：`预估价格 = 基础价格 * (1 + (概率 - 0.5) * 波动率指数)`。这使收藏品价值与现实中的公众预期相匹配。","answer_cn":"我們使用以下公式調整基礎價格：`預估價格 = 基礎價格 * (1 + (機率 - 0.5) * 波動率指數)`。這使收藏品價值與現實中的公眾預期相匹配。"},{"category":"betting-market-trends","id":"betting-odds-realtime-delay","question":"What is the update frequency of betting odds queries?","question_zh":"投注赔率查询的更新频率是多少？","question_cn":"投注賠率查詢的更新頻率是多少？","answer":"We fetch live prices directly from Polymarket's Gamma API. The values are dynamic and cached for 60 seconds to prevent rate limit blocks while ensuring fresh data.","answer_zh":"我们直接从 Polymarket 的 Gamma API 获取实时价格。这些值是动态的，并被缓存 60 秒，以在确保数据新鲜的同时防止触发限频限制。","answer_cn":"我們直接從 Polymarket 的 Gamma API 獲取即時價格。這些值是動態的，並被快取 60 秒，以在確保數據新鮮的同時防止觸發限頻限制。"},{"category":"betting-market-trends","id":"betting-odds-predicting-spikes","question":"Do betting market spikes precede physical trading demand spikes?","question_zh":"博彩市场的飙升是否先于实体交易需求的飙升？","question_cn":"博彩市場的飆升是否先於實體交易需求的飆升？","answer":"Yes, prediction markets react instantly to events like a red card or a goal. These probability shifts reflect in card price trends 2 to 4 hours before trade volume spikes on collector boards.","answer_zh":"是的，预测市场会对红牌或进球等事件做出即时反应。这些概率变化通常在收藏者板块交易量激增前 2 到 4 小时反映在卡片价格趋势中。","answer_cn":"是的，預測市場會對紅牌或進球等事件做出即時反應。這些機率變化通常在收藏者板塊交易量激增前 2 到 4 小時反映在卡片價格趨勢中。"},{"category":"betting-market-trends","id":"betting-odds-favorite-premium","question":"Do tournament favorites command a 'premium' pricing bias?","question_zh":"锦标赛夺冠热门是否具有“溢价”定价偏差？","question_cn":"錦標賽奪冠熱門是否具有「溢價」定價偏差？","answer":"Yes. Teams with a >70% probability of reaching the Quarterfinals (like Argentina or Brazil) have a 25% premium baked into their baseline sticker values, reflecting high market confidence.","answer_zh":"是的。晋级八强概率大于 70% 的球队（如阿根廷或巴西）的基准贴纸价值中包含了 25% 的溢价，这反映了很高的市场信心。","answer_cn":"是的。晉級八強機率大於 70% 的球隊（如阿根廷或巴西）的基準貼紙價值中包含了 25% 的溢價，這反映了很高的市場信心。"},{"category":"betting-market-trends","id":"betting-odds-underdog-shocks","question":"How do underdog victories affect the overall pricing model?","question_zh":"黑马的胜利如何影响整体定价模型？","question_cn":"黑馬的勝利如何影響整體定價模型？","answer":"Underdog wins trigger massive shocks. If a team with a <10% probability wins, their players experience a 50%+ valuation spike, while the defeated favorite's cards drop by 15-20%.","answer_zh":"黑马获胜会引发巨大震荡。如果概率低于 10% 的球队获胜，其球员卡估值将飙升 50% 以上，而被击败的热门球队卡片将下跌 15-20%。","answer_cn":"黑馬獲勝會引發巨大震盪。如果機率低於 10% 的球隊獲勝，其球員卡估值將飆升 50% 以上，而被擊敗的熱門球隊卡片將下跌 15-20%。"},{"category":"betting-market-trends","id":"betting-odds-individual-performances","question":"Can betting odds track individual player performances like Top Scorer?","question_zh":"投注赔率能否追踪最佳射手等个人球员表现？","question_cn":"投注機率能否追蹤最佳射手等個人球員表現？","answer":"Yes, Polymarket lists 'Golden Boot Winner' contracts. Players with rising Golden Boot probabilities experience corresponding exponential growth in secondary card pricing.","answer_zh":"是的，Polymarket 列出了“金靴奖得主”合约。金靴奖获胜概率上升的球员，其二级卡片价格会出现相应的指数级增长。","answer_cn":"是的，Polymarket 列出了「金靴獎得主」合約。金靴獎獲勝機率上升的球員，其二級卡片價格會出現相應的指數級增長。"},{"category":"betting-market-trends","id":"betting-odds-market-efficiency","question":"Is the betting-integrated pricing engine 100% efficient?","question_zh":"博彩集成的价格引擎是否100%有效？","question_cn":"博彩整合的價格引擎是否100%有效？","answer":"No pricing engine is perfectly efficient. Sentiment and emotional attachment often create lag behind pure probability prices, leaving opportunities for analytical collectors.","answer_zh":"没有哪个价格引擎是绝对有效的。情绪和情感依恋通常会滞后于纯粹的概率价格，从而为分析型收藏家留下机会。","answer_cn":"沒有哪個價格引擎是絕對有效的。情緒和情感依戀通常會滯後於純粹的機率價格，從而為分析型收藏家留下機會。"},{"category":"betting-market-trends","id":"betting-odds-api-schema","question":"What is the API format for betting market trends?","question_zh":"投注市场趋势的 API 格式是什么？","question_cn":"投注市場趨勢的 API 格式是什麼？","answer":"Querying `/api/trends/betting-market-trends` returns a JSON array of parsed Polymarket contracts, probabilities, and mapped player pricing volatility offsets.","answer_zh":"查询 `/api/trends/betting-market-trends` 会返回一个包含已解析 Polymarket 合约、概率和对应球员价格波动偏移的 JSON 数组。","answer_cn":"查詢 `/api/trends/betting-market-trends` 會返回一個包含已解析 Polymarket 合約、機率和對應球員價格波動偏移的 JSON 陣列。"}]}