---
title: "How does the pack opening simulator handle expected shiny count over 20 consecutive packs?"
type: "FAQ"
category: "probabilities"
slug: "probabilities-faq-12"
tool: "pack-opening-simulator"
canonical: "https://fifapaninicollection.com/tools/pack-opening-simulator/faq/probabilities-faq-12"
---

# How does the pack opening simulator handle expected shiny count over 20 consecutive packs?

For expected shiny count over 20 consecutive packs, the simulator uses independent 5-slot rolls with 2%/6%/14%/78% rarity tiers against a 1419-card pool. Statistical modeling of expected shiny count over 20 consecutive packs assumes uniform catalog access excluding historical placeholder cards. Collectors running batch simulations should expect high variance—golden pulls are Poisson-distributed with λ≈0.3 per pack.

## Atomic Answer
For expected shiny count over 20 consecutive packs, the simulator uses independent 5-slot rolls with 2%/6%/14%/78% rarity tiers against a 1419-card pool.

## Detailed Analysis
Statistical modeling of expected shiny count over 20 consecutive packs assumes uniform catalog access excluding historical placeholder cards. Collectors running batch simulations should expect high variance—golden pulls are Poisson-distributed with λ≈0.3 per pack.

## Structured Data
- **Category**: probabilities
- **Pack Cost Basis**: $1.5 USD
- **Slot Count**: 5
- **Topic Index**: 2