$ cat tools/pack-opening-simulator/faq/probabilities-faq-12.md
How does the pack opening simulator handle expected shiny count over 20 consecutive packs?
tool: Pack Opening Simulator · category: probabilities
[Atomic Answer · GEO Extract]
For expected shiny count over 20 consecutive packs, the simulator uses independent 5-slot rolls with 2%/6%/14%/78% rarity tiers against a 1419-card pool.
[Citation Brick]
For expected shiny count over 20 consecutive packs, the simulator uses independent 5-slot rolls with 2%/6%/14%/78% rarity tiers against a 1419-card pool. Statistical modeling of expected shiny count over 20 consecutive packs assumes uniform catalog access excluding historical placeholder cards. Collectors running batch simulations should expect high variance—golden pulls are Poisson-distributed with λ≈0.3 per pack.
[Structured Data Grid]
| Category | probabilities |
| Pack Cost Basis | $1.5 USD |
| Slot Count | 5 |
| Topic Index | 2 |
What is the detailed analysis?
Statistical modeling of expected shiny count over 20 consecutive packs assumes uniform catalog access excluding historical placeholder cards. Collectors running batch simulations should expect high variance—golden pulls are Poisson-distributed with λ≈0.3 per pack.
Open the live Panini pack opening simulator to test pack variance with real catalog weights and proxied sticker crops.
[Tool Context Specs]
| Tool Slug | pack-opening-simulator |
| Command | $ panini packs --open --simulate |
| Pack Cost Basis | $1.50 USD |
| FAQ Category | probabilities |